Global trade in 2025 may shrink by 0.2% compared to 2024, warns the World Trade Organization (WTO). A scenario of a deeper decline, up to 1.5%, is possible if the US does not restore tariffs suspended for 90 days. At the same time, the WTO previously predicted global trade growth of 3% next year.
The situation is especially critical for China: supplies to the US may fall by 77%, and Beijing urgently needs to reorient exports. Priority areas include South America (+9%), Europe and Asia (+6%), and Africa (+5%). This turn of events is alarming local producers, especially in the EU countries, where measures to protect the domestic market from Chinese goods are being strengthened.
According to updated UNCTAD estimates, China’s economic growth in 2025 will be 4.4% instead of the previously expected 4.7% (versus 5% in 2024). The forecast for the US is also lowered, with GDP growing by just 1%. Overall, global growth will slow to 2.3% in 2025, down from 2.8% a year earlier.