After the signing of an intergovernmental agreement in Beijing on the construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, Kazakh experts are actively discussing the prospects of the project. Some believe that the new line will not be able to compete with Kazakhstan’s transit routes, but others believe that its appearance will increase competition for transit revenues and have a positive impact on freight traffic.
Political scientist Valery Volodin noted that the railway project has been discussed at the state level since 1996, but has not yet been implemented. The most interested party is China. Political scientist Eduard Poletaev adds that it is important for Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan to have access to China, but Uzbekistan does not have a common border with it, and Kyrgyzstan lacks logistics infrastructure in the transit territory.
The road will be about 500 kilometers long and will cost $8 billion to build, according to Kyrgyz Prime Minister Akylbek Japarov. Poletaev believes that costs could rise to $10-12 billion. Among the difficulties, he notes the mountainous terrain of Kyrgyzstan and the difference in the width of the railway track: in China – 1435 mm, and in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan – 1520 mm, which will create additional technical problems. Poletaev believes that this railway is important as an alternative for Bishkek and Tashkent, but its significance for the transit potential of Central Asia is limited.