In its autumn macroeconomic forecast, the European Commission raised its global economic growth estimate for 2025 from 2.9% to 3.1% (up from 3.3% in 2024). Expectations for 2026 have also been improved to 3.1%, while for 2027 they remain at 3.2%. However, the regulator emphasizes that the global economic outlook remains “highly uncertain.”
A moderate but stable recovery is predicted for the EU: according to the European Commission, the union’s economy will grow by 1.4% in 2025, up from the previously expected 1.1%, and the eurozone economy will grow by 1.3%, up from 0.9% in the spring. The improved estimate was driven by increased exports, but analysts warn of risks due to the terms of trade agreements with the US, the widening EU budget deficit due to defense spending, and demographic challenges.
China’s GDP forecasts have been significantly improved, with GDP growth in 2025 expected to grow by 4.8% from 4.1%, while expectations for the US have been raised to 1.8%. Russia’s economic growth estimate, by contrast, has been lowered from 1.7% to 0.8% due to signs of cooling after strong performance in 2024.