Globalization remains at a historically high level despite rising geopolitical tensions, increased US tariffs, and uncertainty in global trade policy. This is the conclusion reached by experts in the new DHL Global Connectedness Report 2026, prepared jointly by DHL and the Stern School of Business at New York University. The report is based on an analysis of over 9 million indicators of international trade, capital, information, and people flows. According to analysts, the level of globalization in 2025 will be 25% on a scale from 0 to 100%—the same as the record year of 2022. Moreover, global trade turnover in 2025 will grow faster than any year since 2017 (excluding the pandemic), fueled in particular by shipments of goods related to the development of artificial intelligence.
According to the report, geopolitical factors influence trade patterns but do not hinder its growth. For example, the share of trade between the United States and China fell to 2% of global trade in the first three quarters of 2025, down from 3.6% at its peak in 2015. However, most international trade flows are not linked to the United States: in 2025, the country accounted for approximately 13% of global imports and 9% of exports. As a result, global trade continues to grow, with average annual growth expected to reach approximately 2.6% by 2029, consistent with the dynamics of the past decade.
The study also reveals diverging trends in other international flows. Foreign direct investment is generally growing despite a decline in new projects, and cross-border M&A remains robust. Information flows, by contrast, are slowing due to geopolitical restrictions and data transfer regulations. The movement of people has reached record levels after falling during the pandemic. Singapore once again topped the ranking of the most globalized countries, followed by Luxembourg and the Netherlands, while Europe remains the most globalized region. Experts also note that the global economy remains far from being divided into competing geopolitical blocs, as most countries continue to actively cooperate with their traditional trading partners.