Expected disruptions at the entrance of the Red Sea are poised to create additional challenges for container terminals in January 2024. Nevertheless, the Port of Rotterdam remains optimistic about experiencing only minimal overall impact on throughput. Projections from the Port of Rotterdam Authority signal an anticipated decrease of approximately 1.25 million tonnes in the 2023 throughput figures, primarily attributed to delays during the year-end transition, potentially yielding positive effects on results for 2024.
In recent developments, a significant number of sea-faring vessels, particularly container ships originating from the Middle East and South East Asia, have been rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope. Consequently, container ships now face prolonged voyage durations ranging from eight to twelve days, while bulk carriers are encountering delays spanning eleven to eighteen days. The shipping distance between Singapore and Rotterdam via the Suez Canal amounts to 8,288 nautical miles (15,349 km), in contrast to the 11,755 nautical miles (21,770 km) through the Cape of Good Hope. The Port of Rotterdam Authority estimates a potential reduction of around 1.25 million tonnes in throughput volume for December due to these disruptions, with potential repercussions for container throughput and liquid bulk transshipment.
More specifically, the Port of Rotterdam Authority anticipates a decline of approximately 65,000 TEU in container throughput during the final two weeks of December, equating to roughly 0.65 million tonnes. The potential impact on liquid bulk transshipment, encompassing oil, oil products, and palm oil, is projected to be at a maximum of 0.5 million tonnes. While approximately 2.4 million tonnes of liquid bulk usually transit through the Suez Canal each month, not all bulk carriers have chosen to reroute. The Port of Rotterdam Authority foresees a maximum impact of around 0.1 million tonnes on dry bulk, including commodities like coal and iron ore, typically transported through the Suez Canal to Rotterdam on a monthly basis.
Image source: https://www.portofrotterdam.com/en/news-and-press-releases/impact-of-red-sea-unrest-on-rotterdam-throughput-expected-to-be-slight