The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has revised its forecast for global economic growth: in 2025 and 2026, it will amount to 2.9% instead of the previously expected 3.0%. This is lower than the 2024 level (3.3%). According to experts, the main risks are associated with increased protectionism and uncertainty in trade policy, which could slow down the recovery even more.
According to the updated data, the US economy will grow by only 1.6% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, provided that the tariffs introduced in May are maintained. In China, despite the ongoing pressure from US tariffs, growth rates will remain relatively stable: 4.7% in 2025 and 4.3% in 2026. Subsidies for the replacement of consumer goods and the expansion of social benefits will provide support to domestic demand.
The OECD sees the eurozone economy continuing its slow recovery, with growth of 1.0% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026. These estimates are unchanged from March, suggesting continued weakness in the region amid a cooling global economy.