In January 2025, global air cargo volumes grew by 2% year-on-year, significantly slower than the +11% growth recorded last year. The slowdown was due to a high comparison base, lower e-commerce demand and an earlier Lunar New Year (LNY) holiday. In week 5 (27 January – 2 February), volumes were down 12% compared to the previous week, mainly due to a 33% drop in cargo flows from the Asia-Pacific region, where widespread factory closures began on 29 January. However, Central and South America (+16%) and Africa (+11%) showed growth, driven by increased shipments of flowers for Valentine’s Day.
Average air freight rates in January were $2.44/kg (+7% y/y), while spot rates rose to $2.67/kg (+17%). However, in the fifth week, global prices fell by 2% to $2.42/kg, which is explained by the fall in volumes in Asia, despite the growth of rates in Mesoamerica (+33%), Asia-Pacific (+11%) and Africa (+12%).
The outlook for e-commerce between China and the US remains uncertain due to new customs regulations. The full impact of the changes is not yet clear, as the impact of the Lunar New Year obscures the real dynamics of demand.