The logistics market in the first quarter of 2026 is characterized by stable demand amid capacity constraints, rising regulatory costs, and moderate economic growth. AsstrA estimates that the global economy is developing unevenly: inflation has generally stabilized, industrial activity in the EU and US remains weak, while China is showing growth. Demand for transportation is expected to be stable without a sharp increase. The company notes that the market has entered a phase where cost management, planning discipline, and flexibility are becoming more important than short-term rate optimization.
AsstrA emphasizes that proactive planning – early booking, route diversification, and realistic delivery time estimates – is becoming a key priority for clients, particularly on the Asia-Europe route. Costs associated with ETS and CBAM are viewed as a long-term structural factor that must be factored into budgets and contracting strategies. Importers in the EU are advised to invest in emission data transparency to avoid penalties. For logistics providers, operational resilience, including network flexibility, rapid capacity reallocation, and close coordination with ports and inland transport, as well as the cautious reintroduction of routes through the Suez Canal, are becoming the key competitive advantage.
In the maritime freight segment, rate increases began in the fall of 2025 and continued in January 2026, particularly on the Far East – Northern Europe route. Rates are supported by robust demand, the impact of the Suez Canal closure, and additional costs associated with the ETS system, despite a partial reduction in congestion at European ports and lower rates compared to last year. Air freight remains relatively stable: strong demand led to record volumes in 2025, but rates remain moderate, although expensive fuel resources could increase pressure on prices. Overall, the market shows no signs of slowing down, but it is becoming more complex, requiring data-driven forecasting and close collaboration among supply chain participants.