Following the December peak in deliveries, the transport and logistics industry is entering a second, equally intense phase of the season – the period of mass returns. According to the Globkurier logistics platform, the volume of returned shipments in January is 25-30% higher than the monthly average. Moreover, over the past three years, the number of shipments classified as “return to sender” has increased by approximately 140%, indicating a stable structural trend associated with the growth of e-commerce.
The growth in returns is most noticeable in the fashion segment: while their share was around 30% in December, it reaches 50-55% in January. In the electronics segment, the return rate is lower, but the financial impact is significantly greater – the return of a single expensive device can significantly impact the results of a retailer and logistics operator. Meanwhile, the reverse logistics market is rapidly expanding: last year, its volume was estimated at almost $665 billion, and by 2029, it could exceed $954 billion. Experts emphasize that processing returns is often more expensive than shipping itself due to additional operations such as receiving, checking condition, cleaning, repackaging, and updating warehouse data.
In January, warehouses and transport logistics come under significant pressure. Sales flows are replaced by a massive influx of returns, leading to warehouse capacity overload and increased demands on WMS systems. In the transport segment, the problem is exacerbated by a large number of disparate and difficult-to-predict returns, which increases empty runs and shipping costs. Globkurier emphasizes that flexibility and collaboration with multiple carriers are key to sustainability, allowing for faster adaptation to volume fluctuations and proactively responding to capacity constraints.