In April, global air freight spot rates rose to $3.34 per kg – a 30% increase over last year’s figure and the highest level recorded since October 2022. According to Xeneta, this sharp surge is largely attributable to a temporary shortage of cargo capacity on routes affected by regional conflicts; however, as capacity is restored, the market is beginning to stabilize. Concurrently, long-term rates also increased in April – rising by 18% – a trend reminiscent of the supply chain disruptions experienced during the pandemic era.
Xeneta notes that, unlike the COVID-19 period – when global cargo capacity was severely restricted – current market challenges are predominantly regional in nature. Furthermore, high fuel prices are exerting additional pressure on the market, although this is not always directly reflected in freight rates. The company anticipates that as capacity returns, spot rates will begin to decline in the coming weeks, though the pace of this decline is expected to be more gradual than the preceding surge.
The situation in the Middle East and South Asia has had a particularly pronounced impact on the market. By late April, rates from Europe to the Middle East had reached $3.60 per kg – a 108% increase over pre-conflict levels. Rates on routes to South Asia peaked at $4.39 per kg; however, signs of a market correction emerged during the second half of the month. Meanwhile, rates to North America exhibited divergent trends: rates from Southeast Asia rose by 33% to $6.46 per kg, whereas rates from Europe to North America declined by 17% to $2.57 per kg.